The ICS Future Pathways Department believes it is essential to support our students and their families in making future plans which include many different options. We do this by keeping them informed of all the different opportunities in the world, encouraging them to be open to different ideas and, above all, supporting them in being adaptable in our ever changing, unpredictable world.

As a Future Pathways Advisor at ICS since 2015, I have been tracking our school’s university applications for the last 11 years; what countries our students applied to, what universities they chose to go to, what they chose to study and how many decided on a Gap Year, are just a few of the key data points I monitor. When I enter the data for our Class of 2026, that will be 10 years’ worth of information. Over these 10 years, there have been major Global events such as COVID-19, political changes and ongoing wars. I have recently become interested to see if there has been any correlation between these events and the trends in university applications.

COVID-19
In Spring of 2020, the numbers of university applications to Switzerland were consistent with previous years and the number of students taking Gap Years was also consistent with previous years. Then lockdown happened and, once it was clear that this was a situation not going away quickly, the majority of our Gap Year students applied last-minute to Switzerland making our application percentage to Switzerland higher than ever before and our Gap Year percentage the lowest ever. This trend was thought to be a “blip” due to COVID-19 but ever since then, whilst our Gap Year numbers have gone back to the range seen prior to COVID-19, our Swiss university applications have continued on a yearly increase. People often ask me “why”? I can never answer that question with authority as I can only guess as to why - is it because the “hangover” from COVID has left people being more anxious to move abroad for higher education? Is it because the Swiss universities have become more internationally recognised and therefore seen as a good educational institution to attend? Would this increase in applications have happened anyway even if COVID-19 hadn't occurred? Is it because of the cost of living crisis and the affordable tuition fees of Swiss universities are therefore attracting more students and their families? Is it all of those reasons or none? And will this trend continue?

BREXIT
Once Brexit was established, everyone without a British passport was considered international and therefore expected to pay the highest tuition fees. No more “home fees” for European/EEA passport holders. Also, the ability to bring family members to the UK with you as an international student is no longer a possibility. As expected, our school has seen a rapid drop in the number of UK applications to university, most families citing that it is because it is no longer affordable and so they look towards more affordable countries such as Switzerland, the Netherlands, Denmark and Germany. This decline in UK applications hasn't just been seen at our school, fellow university counsellors at other international schools in Switzerland are also seeing the same thing. What is going to happen as a result of this decline in numbers? Will this decline continue or will the trend change? Again, questions I am unable to answer - only able to ponder on.

COST-OF-LIVING-CRISIS
Climate change, the pandemic and Russia/Ukraine conflict have all contributed to a worldwide cost of living crisis. In 2023, global prices rose by 7.4% on average. It therefore is of no surprise that, as a result, families are looking towards more affordable higher education pathways. Many families are saying that they aren't prepared to pay for an undergraduate degree in America - only a master’s. Other families are looking towards countries they wouldn't have been considered in the past such as Switzerland or the Netherlands.

All of the above 3 events have had an impact on the trends in university applications around the world. More often than not, it is a combination of all 3 events causing a change in the university application trends. Whilst we don't know if these trends are here to stay or whether they will revert back to what we traditionally saw pre-2020, what we do know is that we are now seeing the negative consequences of these trends and therefore it is likely that these consequences will disrupt the trend and cause yet another one.

Take for instance the increase in international students applying to Switzerland. ETH is ranked 11th in the world (Times Higher Education rankings) and, whilst other Swiss universities refuse to partake in Global rankings, the Swiss universities are getting a lot of global recognition. The numbers of students in the first year classes are overflowing and in many popular subjects, only 25% will be allowed to move on to the second year. The increase in  international student intake in Switzerland has caused EPFL (Swiss Federal Technology Institute of Lausanne) to put a cap on the number of international students they take to 3000, ETH changed their entrance exam to be held once every 2 years instead of once a year and are making the Master’s degrees more restrictive.

In the Netherlands, a paper outlining a package of measures reducing access to English-taught programmes at Dutch universities was outlined by their membership association in February 2024 as an apparent way of reversing the current student housing crisis. Canada announced in 2024 that they may be restricting international applicants. These restrictions may seem “unfair” but what else can the universities do when students are struggling to find a  seat in the lecture hall or the students arriving into the specific country can't find any accommodation?

In this ever-changing, unpredictable world it is so very important to encourage our young people to be adaptable. A student in Grade 10 may plan to apply to a university in Switzerland when they reach Grade 12 and they may have the academic profile that would suggest that they would be successful in 2026. But we don't know what the criteria will be in 2028 - it may be harder to gain a place, or easier, or, indeed, the same. There is no longer any possibility in making a strong prediction even when looking at 10 years’ of data.

Rachel Doell - Future Pathways Advisor